One question that came up during my long and as so many people who have no idea what it is and was all about, like to say, “controversial motorsport career” a few people asked me if I would not have liked to do the Dakar Rally.
Without exception and as the years went by, with less and less hesitation I said “Not ever and I will not do it if they paid me!”
A guy like Alfie Cox for instance must be one of the most underrated ironmen this country has ever seen, but at the same time Giniel de Villiers who grew from an incredible rookie to one of the truly feared specialists on the Dakar, also does not receive ten percent of the acknowledgement he deserves.
Luckily for the continued existence of the event there were always many other people, team members and crews who had more faith in their patience than me.
Fact is – I get stuck in the sand, dig all out and after an hour of digging I move 5 metres to get stuck again – that would be it!
Bon fire in the desert!
Mental fitness is a prerequisite for this two week exercise.
If you do not have perfect control over your mind and emotions you will not see the end of this rally within any sort of competitive time. There are about – as Zuma would say, one thousand three hundred million three thousand one hundred thousand and thirty places where you can cock things up, simply because you in your mind, decide you will not make it.
Over and above the incredible psychological strain, there are numerous other factors playing a role before you get to the durability of the car and physical ability of the crew.
There is for instance the unknown effect of the El Nino weather phenomenon. What its effect of this weather pattern will be during January 2016 is a wild guess, but it seems it’s habits are unpredictable – temperatures are mostly higher than expected and conditions very dry but the moment this pattern changes it becomes thoroughly wet and sloshy.
I do believe that the weather will play a bigger role than what is expected by most teams.
Extreme heat will have a detrimental effect on crews who get stuck and too much of that sort of problems may spell the end for many of them.
This year there will be a little less sand and also fesh-fesh, but the event will remain as demanding as only the Dakar can be.
The teams will start the 2 016 Dakar on the 2nd of January 2016 on which day they will do a short Prologue to get a bit of order in the starting positions.
Nothing can really be read into this run and I do not believe the fastest teams will take too many chances, although not one of the top contenders will want to be held up on day two stuck behind slower drivers unnecessarily.
It will be in Sebastien Loeb’s interest to put in a serious run during the prologue. He needs to get right there between the top contenders to be able to make use of their experience and pace himself properly right from the start of the event. It will be good for him to be between Petterhansel and Sainz if he has a choice.
If this rally goes down to a dogfight in its final stages do not be surprised if Loeb stands on the podium when the fat dusty lady comes out to sing in a true Jacques Brel voice.
Loeb is an exceptional driver, an incredible strategist and absolutely dedicated – a combination not many, if any other driver in this field can touch.
He is in my eyes the first of the real new generation of super kids – a direct line of the ancient alien gods who rules earth many, many moons ago! (Long story – but will tell you if you need to know!)
DAY TWO SUNDAY STAGE 1 03/01: Start in Buenos Aires and finishes in Villa Carlos Paz –
Teams will compete over 258kms special stage for the cars and trucks while bikes and quads will follow a partial different track that stretches over 227km to avoid dangerous overtaking manoeuvres.
There are some deep ruts and vehicles will often not follow the direction in which the driver intends to go.
DAY THREE MONDAY 04/01: Special Stage 2 Villa Carlos Paz – Termas de Río Hondo Total distance 858km for cars 786km for bikes
On day three the special will be 450km for bikes and Quads, while the cars will tackle a hefty 521km
This is where the drivers will start stamping their authority. The section is said to be a high speed affair although there are mention of rivers and crossings.
I have a feeling that this may be where Leeroy Poulter will test the waters to see what sort of tempo he has to to hold, if he wants to remain in the top positions. I am not talking Top 10, I am talking Top 5.
Giniel will have the tempo and strategy sorted and will probably lean back and simply stay with the rest of the Dakar specialists.
While we chat about the two South African Toyota drivers it needs to be mentioned that the 2016 new look Hilux has been fitted with a very powerful new engine from the Lexus RCF range, it sports a new Motec engine management system that works on a few different principles than the previous model and that is why it needed a new type of ECU and software.
New type Sadev gearbox will see that the power gets to the wheels, while Motec will also drive the electrical power management system.
The 2016 Hilux is also lighter which left Hall and Co more scope to set the chassis up properly and it is also known that the developers worked on a number of “for your eyes only” stuff quietly since last year – after it seemed impossible to catch the Mini’s.
One fact is certain – the Hilux is quicker than ever before!
DAY FOUR TUESDAY 05/01: STAGE 3 Termas de Río Hondo – Jujuy 314/663 ALL VEHICLES SAME ROUTE
This is the stage were rain can and will change everything. The more opportunistic guys slightly down the order will use this stage to take aim at the leaders.
This stage will be where concentration will play a huge role and one may just see a new leader at the end of day four.
DAY FIVE – WEDNESDAY 06/01: Special Stage 4 – San Salvador de Jujuy – San Salvador de Jujuy
Bikes and Quads (429km) will do 10kms more than the cars and trucks total section of 619km
I don’t think we should expect anything else than a diesel Mini or Peugeot to win the section today. This stage will be the start of the real Dakar and the average altitude of 3,500m will without doubt favour the more torque engines. This is then also the start of a marathon stage and the teams will try to keep the vehicles in good shape for day Six.
DAY SIX Thursday – 7/01 STAGE 5 San Salvador de Juyuy to Uyuni
All vehicles same distance and route – 327kms special from a total of 642km.
Day two of the Marathon stage.
This is where the real advantage for the diesel vehicles will kick in. As the teams enter Bolivia the altitude will rise to 4600m which is the highest point for this year’s event.
Technicality will step up a gear and the navigators will have to be wide-awake if they do not want to be kicked out of the cars. The route goes – wait for this – “off-piste” – which simply means that it deviates off the normal road and will go “off-road”.
The Toyotas will be able to stand their man through these sections as according to Glyn Hall the team boss, the cars are without doubt better than they were over the rough off-road sections.
Readers must not be surprised if a driver such as Nani Roma does exceptionally well on this event. Especially as the route mostly follows “normal” roads with a lot less sand than the normal route offered over past years. A big part of the desert has been cut out due to the heavy rains and erosion during 2015.
I would love to see Leeroy Poulter take on Carlos Sainz and Al-Atiyah on the more “roadish” sections, as I have over the past few years maintained that he is the quickest driver in South Africa and such a “test” will give us an indication where we stand. The problem is that the conditions on the Dakar is seldom such that the diesel and petrol engines stand an equal chance to make comparison possible.
The fact however that Leeroy won the South African off-road championship this year proves that he is able to pace himself as his experience increases – while on the rally scene he once again proved that it takes a world class Ford with all the bells and whistles to stay ahead of a South African developed Toyota, with him behind the steering wheel.
If Carlos Sainz heads the event at this point, which is a bit of an iffy if, as I am not sure how well the Peugeots will stand up to this challenge, but few motorsport wise-men will have any doubt that Peugeot will come prepared – well prepared, it may be an indication that he will be difficult to remove from that position. His pace will then up the total pace of the event and more drivers will have to take more risks to stay in touch.
Petterhansel may or may not start bothering to get into the lead around this time, although I believe he will probably still pace himself to stay in the top 3 maybe 4 – while no one can afford to allow either Sainz of Al-Attiyah to start running away from the pack.
Nasser Al-Attiyah?
Well what can I say? He has won plenty so far this year and it will be really stupid not to rate him as the top contender for a back to back win in 2016. I say this with all respect, but I believe that the fact that AL-Attiyah comes from the “Arab Emirates” caused some experts not to take him too serious until a couple of years ago when he proved that he is not only a “hothead” but a very fast hothead that can stay on the road.
The Mini is not sorted out – it is by now probably perfected!
On paper – you need not look any further to find the winner for the 2016 Dakar – as it should be a Mini with Al-Attiyah as first choice behind the steering, then Nani Roma. Terranova is a great racer, but seems to hit spots of bother too often to be the biggest threat from the Mini camp.
A One-Two-Three for anyone on this year’s event is not on the cards as the event is truly not as difficult as it is “supposed” to be.
I will not be in the least surprised if we have a Peugeot, Mini, Toyota in any sequence combination in the end.
DAY SEVEN FRIDAY 8/01 – STAGE 6 – Uyuni to Uyuni – The Special Section will be 542kms for bikes, quads and cars – while they will travel 723km to complete the section.
Trucks on the other hand will only do 295km and a total section of 600km.
This is the sixth day of constant racing and at the same time the longest stage of the rally.
The “bad” news for Toyota is that the altitude will vary between 3500 and 4200m for most of the section, which will count in favour of the diesel engine cars.
If the rally is hit by rain on this day – conditions will become severe as the surface changes constantly between loose sand and rock.
The teams will however be able to enjoy a few glimpses of the Salar d’Uyuni as they pass along the incredible salt lake.
DAY EIGHT – STAGE 7 – Uyuni to Salta 353kms stage of a total of 793kms
I am not sure if this is more scare publicity or serious warnings – but the organisers soothsayers say that more than half the field may reach the end of this stage in Salta after nightfall – but at least before their assistance vehicles that will also have a long road ahead of them?
Be that as it may – Day 9 Sunday the 10th is a rest day that will be welcomed by all – except of course those who have to try and get the vehicles back into some sort of shape to carry on, on Monday. In the case of works-teams the cars will start Monday in almost brand new condition except for the exterior paint – while some privateers will have their work cut out just to get the vehicles to make oil pressure, not loose wheels and so on.
The Dakar only finishes when it finishes!
MONDAY DAY 11 – 11/1 – STAGE 8
The first stage of the second section of the rally will be 393kms long and the competitors will meet Mrs Sand, a lady who is the cousin of the well-known murderess – Daisy de Melker. She welcomes you with a smile and then simply kills you!
This is where it will start turning in favour of Dune Experts such as Stephane Peterhansel, Giniel de Villiers, Nani Roma, Al-Attiyah and so on’s way.
Drivers a little down the field may find a number of vehicles stuck in deep sand en route and the further back the worse it will get.
I do not believe there will be huge gaps between the top five or six at the start of this section but the top teams will today start opening a gap between them and the rest of the mere mortals. This will also be Sebastien Loeb’s test day!
It will apparently also be a bit of a tester on the navigation side.
DAY 10 – TUESDAY 12/01 Stage 9 BELĖN TO BELĖN
285kms Stage and total of 436km
This loop stage is not really Bikers and Quad rider’s dream.
They will share the road, which will be almost entirely off-road, with cars and trucks. The area is normally exceptionally hot during this period and the physical effort to stay in the race and on the bikes through vegetation scattered over dunes, rocky areas and riverbeds, may just prove to be too much for some competitors.
Navigation will be a challenge on this day and much can go wrong
DAY 11 WEDNESDAY 13TH – STAGE 10 BELÉN TO LA RIOJA
SPECIAL SECTION 278KM with bikes doing a total of 561km and the cars 763.
This day is going to belong to the Minis and maybe even Peugeot. Diesel power will simply have an advantage over the petrol powered units as the crews tackle the long Fiambala Dunes.
The men will on this day be separated from the boys.
It is so difficult to say how the Toyotas will fare as we have no idea – actually not a specific idea of how much they improved – even if they are the best they have ever been.
The Minis will have sorted out some problems they experienced last year, but there is no way in hell they could improve much on what they already had – as the rules of the race remained the same from last year.
The Peugeot onslaught and potential is also very difficult to judge and with them it is almost a wait and see game.
So – Toyota have improved their off-piste (off road) performance, they run a stronger lighter car and who knows – they may be all over the Minis – even in the sandy areas. I doubt it – but there is nothing wrong with wishful thinking.
Fiambala – will have a huge effect on this race. The sand, the heat and the expert knowhow will simply lie there waiting to swallow the desert masters and their horses.
DAY 12 THURSDAY 14TH – STAGE 11 LA RIOJA TO SAN JUAN
Special sections: 431km Total: 712km
Today fesh-fesh (for those who are not familiar with the term, it is deep holes filled with powder dust. They look good enough to cross and they swallow half a car) will feature and if the organisers can be believed – the fesh-fesh is Guiness Book of Record quality.
There will also be some seriously fast straight roads featuring gravel and pebbles.
This is not the ideal day to try a few desert tricks – but there will be some opportunities to close or open gaps.
DAY 12 FRIDAY 15TH – STAGE 12 SAN JUAN TO VILLA CARLOS PAZ
Special sections: 481km Total: 931km for cars and bikes while trucks will do a shorter 267km special section.
There is more than 900km to cover on the day before the finish, including more than half in the special section, with the exception of the trucks, whose dimensions are not suitable for some of the tracks on the agenda. In this semi-mountainous terrain, the vegetation which lines their edges might be a bit tight for them!
This means that the other vehicles will also have to show dexterity.
Now in comes the likes of Sainz, Loeb and yes, I rate him there Poulter!
This is going to be a challenging section and the best reflexes applied at the correct split second will prove to be too much for the other contenders. If I have to put money on a driver – this stage will belong to Loeb if the Peugeot is still in competitive form!
DAY 13 SATURDAY 16TH – VILLA CARLOS PAZ TO ROSARIA
There will only be 180km of stage left to do your thing and if your are more than 10 seconds behind the top runners – rather get the car to the finish and enjoy a beer.
The route will make for some spectacular driving through twisty, sandy and rocky sections – but like some other clever guy once said – too little too late.
FROM A SOUTH AFRICAN ANGLE..
There is a strong South African flavour to the race this year and apart from Giniel de Villiers and Leeroy Poulter there are a number of other South Africans participating.
If marketing and publicity had anything to do with winning this event, the Red Lined Racing team would have been so far ahead that they would already have been looking for seats at the prize giving.
Terence Marsh and his team have supplied us all with interesting and important snippets not only of their incredible progress, but of some other South African efforts as well.
The two Red Line Racing Nissan Navaras will be driven by Jurgen Schroder – the “mad German” who will be competing in his 7th Dakar and he will team up with his son Daniel.
Jurgen’s previous Dakar experiences were as navigator for his good friend South African, Alfie Cox.
The second driver for this team will be the 45 year old South African Sean Reitz who will be making his debut at the Dakar.
Sean only started cross country racing two and a half years ago and has successfully completed 2 seasons in the Donaldson Championship in SA as well as several dune training sessions in Namibia as he prepared himself for the challenge. His navigator will be Riaan Greyling who will also be on debut from a competitors point of view.
“SA manufactured race cars – a total of 16 Hilux V8’s, two Renault Dusters, two Ford Rangers, two Nissan Navaras and the two Century Racing buggies – make up nearly 25% of the entry list, while over hundred South Africans will play supportive roles on the Dakar.” (Quote from Media24)
The team every South African will root for, for an overall win will be that of Giniel de Villiers (#301) and his German navigator Dirk von Zitzewitz. Giniel is a master at the Dakar and I doubt very much if my personal favourite Leeroy Poulter (#319) with Rob Howie at his side, will have enough ammunition to keep up with the more experienced crews, but on the other hand nothing says that there is any reason why he might not get out of this smelling like a rose!
Mark Corbett/Juan Mohr (#346) and Colin Matthews/Rodney Burke (#378) in a pair of Century Racing CR5 buggies will put on one hell of an effort in this Dakar, but odds are slightly against them breaking into the Top 10.
In the bike category the only SA entrant is Kobus Potgieter (KTM 450 RR, #125), but Wessel Bosman (KTM, #130), an ex-SA 110m hurdles champion who participated this year but didn’t finish, entered the 2016 rally under Lesotho colours – making him the first ever resident from the mountain kingdom to participate in the prestigious rally.
In the quad category there are three Bidvest Yamaha Team Rhide SA entries for Dakar veteran Brian Baragwanath (#274), Eddie Barbier (#275) and new SA champion George Twigge (#276), while Sean Berriman will be a racing crew member aboard a MAN in the truck category.
Then of course we have all the South Africans doing duty in various capacities – guys and girls who will put in all they have and more to get their respective teams to the end of yet another gruelling run.
To one and all of you – thank you for the incredible entertainment, thank you for representing every single one off us!
May the gods of motorsport, the ghosts of the desert, the fat lady and Ms Sand all be at your side and may you enjoy the best event ever.
