One morning not so early and not far into the future a group of warriors will arrive at a certain gathering point in Uitenhage, which in turn is near the windy city called Mandela Bay or Port Elizabeth, depending when you were born.There will be many family battle crests, war colours and egos on display and the tension will be high.
Some may mistake this as the start of the third world war as you will find warriors of Austria, Holland, Belgium, Namibia and also the once mighty Germany hanging around their vehicles of war surrounded by a Zulu from Sandton, and a Boer or two from half owned farms and BEE companies of note, from South Africa. There will also be a contingent of local soldiers filling the hindquarters.
On Friday the 11th of July 2014 spot on, at 12h00 those close by the Volkswagen Auto Pavilion in Uitenhage will hear the sound of what at first will seem quite timid and friendly as the war machines drone past on their way to do battle at the first stage of this epic fight.
The problem placed in my lap though has nothing to do with the origin of the warriors or which colours they fly but to predict who will step out of the battle as victor! This my dear friends you will see is almost impossible.
The first salvo will be fired at exactly 12h23 when temperatures are predicted to be 21degrees Celsius with a 6% change or rain and a light wind blowing in a Southern direction at 11km/h.
Why is the wind and so on important?
The battle ground in this first stage called Mission (appropriate don’t you think) over 16.45km will be covered in a rather thick dusty layer after the third car or so crossed.
The twisty nature of the route especially over the first few kilometres will definitely hold a thread in this regard.
Sixteen kilometres that do not really open up may have an influence on the whole of this rally because it is tricky rather than testing.
For some reason I have a feeling that this first stage will go to either Leeroy Poulter or Henk Lategan.
My reason?
I can truly not say that it is more than a feeling, but I have to add that they genuinely “look” fastest in the tight sections I have managed to spectate in.
The problem for the chasers are that if anyone manages to open a substantial lead in this stage it will not be so easy to catch up again, although I do also believe that it will not count in Henk’s favour if he leads the event this early.
Like in Natal – my biggest “concern” is the Raimund Baumschlager factor.
Why?
Well if you do not know him or of him, Baumschlager is the reigning Austrian rally champion – he has won the title for the past 11 years and is just eight points away from a record 12th title. He will be partnered by his regular co-driver.
Our previous chance to see him in action was cut so short in Natal that he did not even start after a meeting with a team service van near a test stage.
Mark Cronje our reigning champion is fresh from a convincing victory on the PMC Gauteng Rally where he got his defence of the title going at last. This year so far has not been good to him and the fact that he does not have a practise car anymore may have a bit of an effect on his performance.
Toyota on the other hand had a bit of bad luck on the PMC rally – almost traditionally despite the fact that they did not sponsor it this time – when both Poulter and de Villiers had engine related problems. Hergen Fekken who now shares the championship lead with Poulter did well to finish in fourth spot. Will this not be poetic justice if Fekken manages to win the championship this year driving a Toyota?
After the problems in Gauteng Toyota did make a few changes to the engines and should be right there on top again this time around – or will they be?
Volkswagen on the other hand made the PMC Gauteng rally their own by taking second and third spots right behind the winning Ford of Cronje.
If I have to take the habits of the European drivers I have seen in action into account I have to rethink the winner for Stage 1 again and odds lean a bit to Weijs and Baumschlager’s side. European drivers seem to be better drivers in the tight as they practice the tighter corners between rallies while the SA drivers seem to prefer the flat out or at least fast stuff – that sure as hell never did anything for anyone.
But I will stick to my choice and say that the competitors will enter Stage 2 with Poulter in the lead.
Stage 2 called Culturama is well known to most experienced drivers and stretches over 19.13km if you stay on the road.
It is fast and furious – an excellent driver test but also not a stage that gives experience all that much advantage. The corners are rather predictable and if you are a fast driver in a proper car, you have a chance to take this one from Cronje if he blinks an eye twice. If he blinks only once – your name can be any-schlager and you will still find it difficult to keep up. This type of stage is Cronje and Ford staple food, but then again the Volkswagen team will be full of piss and vinegar after their previous success and no surprise if Weijs, Baumschlager or Lategan pulls this one off.
Now be careful Botha, says I to myself. What I have seen of the Toyotas should be a very worrying factor to the other teams. Shortly before the PMC rally they were impressively quick and I knew they could on the PMC event pull of yet another “upset”, as they did in Natal and again on the Sasol.
Fact is that their engines blew after this step up in pace and they had to do an adjustment or two to sort that problem out. Question is did they lose a bit of speed or even worse a bit of grunt in the process?
If not – watch this space for an announcement that Poulter and Fekken or Fekken and Poulter posted top two times through this stage.
Then my friends and all the rest – if you have a grand umbrella and a soft chair – load it and go find a place next to the stage of the rally – it is called Gamtoos and will stretch over 15.09km. There are no specific spectator points indicated – so you will not be able to reach the stage except on foot or long before it starts. So do not go anywhere in there if you do not have a contact and know that you will have to remain in the stage until the sweep car reopens the road. This may only happed at around 15h30 or so.
This is going to be make or break for the Top5 – it will be one of the most exciting if not scary stages any driver has ever done. It is fast flowing with sudden tightening corners offering high escapes over the edges of the road.
This one will most probably go in either Cronje or Baumschlager’s favour and only because I believe the former is the only driver who will be willing to test this stage to the full and because he always shapes big time on this type of stage, while Baumschlager has to rely on a guess from my side. If the Austrian championship is a tough one and he has won it 11 times he has to be quick and this stage will be new to all drivers, which of course will cancel any previous experience they may have.
Weijs will probably also do well here – although he might concentrate on something to complain about, rather than concentrate on his job.
Lategan has the young and fresh set of balls to scare the bejesus out of Barry White on this stage and I will be least surprised if he either wins this one or cock it up.
Toyota?
I will be honest and admit that despite hem not being my favourite Leeroy Poulter is one of the drivers that impress me most and if that car goes well – this section could open the gap he wants at this stage of the game between him and second placed Cronje.
Hergen Fekken will again drive as steady as a rock but may decide to be a little less careful – I think he is over the psychological barrier he obtained from the incredible streak of shit luck he had with Volkswagen and will decide to drive the Toyota at the pace we all know he can.
If this happens added to all the other options – then I am afraid that I have an almost impossible task to try and predict what and who will be where.
No matter – I think we will have at least two different winners over the first three stages and the Top5 will be bunched up closely.
Off to Stage 4 called PPC we go.
When I did the notes for this stage it was in a bit of a mess. Rough, washed away in places, overgrown in other and in general not nice rally country.
That will however not be the first time a scary stage will change into a great one for the Volkswagen Rally. Joe Fourie has almost always – even when nature did its best to destroy the rally, manage to deliver good stages.
About 90% of PPC have been graded, and all that remains is for a bit of rain to help settle the loose gravel top a bit before the start. If that does not happen the stage might deteriorate a bit and the second run over it on Saturday may be a bit of a challenge.
Cronje did this stage in an excellent time last year winning by 5 seconds from second fastest Lategan – but we have to add that Cronje at that stage last year already started to drive for a finish and an overall win.
PPC is a typical rally challenge and holds numerous traps ready to grab you, shake you, and then spit you out. So if the times are truly on top of each other when this one starts, we may see a few of the challengers disappear from the scene during this stage.
After PPC the only gravel challenge for Friday that remains will be the familiar but always “different” Melon East stage. This stage was also repaired since I made the notes, so the rough and even some narrow spots will be a little more consumer friendly.
Melon is run in both directions. East on Friday, West on Saturday and believe me when I say that it must also rate as one of the top stages when it comes to challenging driving. You have to drive technically perfect to get through them in a hurry let alone win the stage overall.
Odds are Cronje, Poulter, Fekken, Lategan, Weijs and then probably Baumschlager. If the latter driver wins this stage then “we” are in trouble and this war may just go the Austrian way!
The cherry on the Friday cake will be the two short spectator stages in Jeffreys Bay. The stages are 2km long together and the only change they may bring could be a popped clutch or bent rim and suspension here and there.
The lead at the end of day one could be in the hands of anyone of six drivers.
Lategan, Cronje, Fekken, Poulter, Weijs, Baumschlager, but not necessary in that order.
What about Van Niekerk, de Villiers and Gugu Zulu you want to know.
At the risk of landing myself into some serious trouble – all I can say is I simply do not know what to do with them.
Gugu has improved immensely – and I do not just say that. He has! My problem with his is simply that I do not know what to expect and for how long to expect it. He shows brilliance at times, then seems to fade a bit just to come back again. This makes it almost impossible to predict. He has not won stages to give any steady warning that he is on the up and up – so I have to be satisfied to admit I do not know where he will run.
Japie van Niekerk has the ability to win stages – no doubt but he still has to prove that he can win one after the other without cocking up. This makes him an almost permanent dark horse on every rally. You do not know, when and where it might just happen and we sit with one hell of an upset.
The Dakar Champ – Giniel de Villiers.
Watch him in the Melon stages – watch him in Gamtoos. That is all I can say.
Giniel reads the road better than any other driver, he drives what he sees and does that better than some of the best in the world.
Problem is that, that will land him third spots and worse. He believes in himself and that is that! Pace notes will only work for him if he is as sure as hell that first I did not cock up, and that he did not either – but only after he went over a stage at least three times. Then my friend – not many drivers will stay with him.
Saturday action will start at the PE Oval and will remain there for a 2.2km run over the newly created Super Special before the teams will do the shortened Mission stage again.
The road positions will have changed and this stage will be well worn-out, if my assessment of the surface was correct. It will be rocky and loose and not worth really throwing anything but caution at.
Then follows another run through Culturama and that will be something for the enthusiast to see. The second run is traditionally a bit faster than the first and by now the road will be well cleaned or “swept” as we call it. The time through this should be in the region of about 10m32s – or at least 5 seconds quicker than the first run through on Friday.
Melon West will then follow and the winning time might just be quicker than 6 minutes this year. A 5m57 which is close on 110km/h average, will not surprise me too much.
The second run through PPC will then follow. It is almost impossible to predict what will happen here but I have an idea that the second run through will suit the Toyotas best – especially if it is rough and worn by then.
Sinkdam – the reverse of Culturama will be a real tester and if time gaps are close then this will be an incredible stage to spectate in the right places. Problem is that it may be difficult to get to any of the proper and fast points. The one where you will be allowed will be at GPS S33 49.831 E25 08.846
The last stage of this rally will be a short stage again next to Prince Alfred’s Park in PE and first car due will be 13h53.
To sum up:-
This rally is going to be closely contested and Mark Cronje will have a very hard time to walk away with 25 points that will put him back in the hunt for the championship.
The unknown on this event remains Baumschlager – but by start Saturday we will know where we stand and whether our drivers can keep up with him or not. I sure as hell hope they can as I will be very disappointed if we receive a wake-up call as far as our own talent goes.
This rally offers a number of stages with which we are all acquainted and the notes should be very close to the truth. So we do not have any excuses if we are beaten.
If I have to place a bet it will be on the fact that the rally will be a great one and that we will be surprised at the outcome!
The challenge class has no entries according to the entry list.
In S1600 Botterill, Vacy-Lyle, Haigh-Smith and most probably van Beurden need to be watched.
So far Guy Botterill with navigator Simon Vacy-Lyle made a clean sweep and based on their past performance over the three previous events, you will be a fool not to bet on them. Nothing but car failure will stop their march to the championship.
The Classic Class drew only 2 entries while the rally can truly thank the 15 local regional entrants for their presence or we would have been stuck with an embarrassing low number of cars for the rally.
The 21 entries for the championship must be the lowest national championship entry ever? Maybe something is wrong somewhere even while I am always assured that all is well?
Let’s not go there – let’s rather go to PE and watch some serious action and at the same time pray that we will have a few more rallies to watch.