Let’s be clear though, there’s only one way in which Marc can leave Japan with the trophy in his hands. First he would have to win the race and Rossi would have to finish 15th or lower. In this way, the Spaniard would come away with more than a 75-point advantage over the Doctor, exactly what he would need.
Reaching exactly 75 wouldn’t be enough as, with three races still to run, Valentino would have a chance to tie, in terms of both points and wins. It might seem like science-fiction, but it’s simple maths.
Also, the Italian is not the only rider in the running for the title, as Lorenzo, though 66 points back, still has a shot too. So Marquez, at Motegi, wouldn’t just need to gain 24 points on Rossi but also 10 on Jorge. So the Majorcan, if the Honda rider were to win, would have to be off the podium.
We can summarise all this with a simple formula: Marquez can lift the title at Motegi only if he wins, Rossi is 15th or lower and Lorenzo finishes 4th or lower.
In other words, Marc cannot count only his talents but would also have to hope for some kind of trouble for his direct rivals. Who, in turn, have no intention of giving up but, on the contrary, will fight to the very end.
Also because Motegi may well belong to Honda, but both Yamaha and Ducati have always done well there while Marquez has never won there in MotoGP. Lorenzo has done so, in 2009 and again in 2013 and 2014. Pedrosa also loves the track, having won three of the last 5 races, while Rossi hasn’t won there since 2008.
As usual, the Michelin tyres represent a question mark as will the weather, often unpredictable in Japan.
Many variables, that even the most sophisticated of calculators cannot predict.